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The ledo:

1. Production capacity remains unchanged, and supply remains historically high;

2. Inventories are falling again, with strong demand for real estate and automobiles;

3, soda price and glass price synchronous rise, original film manufacturers profit margin expansion.

Bad:

Base difference expands again, disk risk magnifies

Overall, in terms of fundamentals, this week's float glass production capacity has not changed from last week, and the current capacity level remains at a historically high level. The inventory of domestic float glass raw sheet manufacturers has dropped significantly from last week, and the inventory level has correspondingly come to a historically low level, which is close to the inventory level in October last year. Coming out in March, the fundamentals of data, we found that the downstream property continue to maintain strong momentum, new starting area, completed area and construction area, the area of commercial housing sales year-on-year growth are ideal, at the same time, the downstream car production is in surprise, march year-on-year growth highest level for almost eight years, real estate and cars for glass downstream of the main two sectors, Such a bright growth, for the glass spot price also provides the corresponding support, this week glass futures prices hit a new high, making the low negative base again go expansion, disk risk also magnifies accordingly.

Prices were

This week glass futures price shock down, as of Friday night trading close, the closing price of 2217 yuan/ton, compared with last Friday down 129 yuan/ton, or 6.18%.

Analysis of price influencing factors

1. In terms of supply, from the perspective of domestic float glass production capacity, there are 384 float glass production lines in China this week, and 247 are in production, unchanged from last week. The production line operating rate is 64.32, unchanged from last week, with a year-on-year increase of 1.99; Daily melting volume totaled 162,741 tons, with a sequential increase of 1200 tons and an increase of 0.74%, and a year-on-year increase of 8,300 tons and an increase of 5.34%. According to the calculation, the actual average in-production capacity in April was 162,508 tons/day, an increase of 1182 tons/day month-on-month, an increase of 0.73%; From the above data can be seen, this week float glass production unchanged from last week, the current glass production to maintain a historical high.

2. In terms of demand, according to the latest data, float glass enterprise inventory was 1,354,100 tons, down 141,900 tons from last week, up -9.49% from last week, down 3,578,900 tons from the same period last year, up -72.55% from last year; As can be seen from the above inventory data, the inventory of float glass enterprises decreased again this week. In terms of real estate, the accumulated construction area of real estate in March increased by 11.2% year on year, the accumulated new construction area of real estate increased by 28.2% year on year, the accumulated completed area of housing increased by 22.9% year on year, and the accumulated sales area of commercial housing increased by 63.9% year on year. Automobile production in March increased by 69.8% year-on-year. From the above data, it can be seen that the downstream demand for glass is relatively strong, which will form a strong support for the current price of glass.

3. In terms of profits, the current national average price is 2281 yuan/ton, up 133 yuan/ton compared with last week. The spot price in northern regions is relatively strong, while the spot price in some southern regions has begun to decline to a certain extent. Cost end, spot soda price rose slightly from last week, reached 1990 yuan per ton; From the perspective of profit, the current average profit of original film manufacturers is 851 yuan per ton, 44 yuan per ton higher than last week, 740 yuan per ton higher than the same period last year, the profit margin reached 37%.

4. Base, futures prices rose sharply this week and hit a new high, compared with the spot price increase, futures prices rose significantly, the base is also expanding again, disk risks magnify again.